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Energethique » Blog Archive » La fin du pétrole est proche …
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La fin du pétrole est proche …

… Oui mais quand ?

C’est la question que s’est posée l’Ukerc (Centre de recherche sur l’énergie du Royaume Unis) et la réponse est « Avant 2030  » mais la date exacte est sans intérêt.
On parle ici de Peak Oil ou en français de pic pétrolier c’est à dire le moment à partir duquel la production baissera irrémédiablement du fait du tarissement des puits et du non renouvellement par la découverte de nouveaux sites.
Précisons que ce Peak Oil est annoncé depuis des années et que les progrès technologiques et les nouvelles découvertes n’ont eu de cesse que d’en repousser l’apparition (on vous en parlait déjà ici).
Aujourd’hui il faut néanmoins se rendre à l’évidence qu’un jour on viendra à bout des ressources et la difficulté à prévoir cette date réside dans le fait qu’il y a quelques inconnues.

D’abord les réserves de pétrole mondiales sont estimées (et donc non connues précisément) à partir des données fournies par les compagnies pétrolières (qui ont intérêt à gonfler leur stock, leur valorisation boursière en dépendant).
Ensuite les conditions d’exploitation ont évolué tant et si bien que des puits considérés comme taris ont réouvert grâce à l’utilisation de nouvelles technologies d’extraction.
Pour terminer certains sites inexploitables économiquement à un pétrole à 70$ le baril le deviendront lorsque le pétrole gratterra les 100$ ou chatouillera les 200$.

La question est donc : « Mais alors quand ? »
C’est dans un rapport étayé de 500 pages publié ce 8 octobre que l’on peut trouver la réponse à cette question.
Attention point de Madame Soleil on ne vous donnera ni date ni heure mais une fourchette d’évaluation pondérée par une probabilité d’apparition.
Il ressort ainsi à la lecture de ce rapport que ce pic sera atteint avant 2030 et ce quelles que soient les ressources découvertes et l’évolution de la technologie.
Plus précisément on parle d’une fourchette allant entre 2009 et 2030 avec un risque significativement élevé d’une apparition avant 2020.

Vous voyez sur le graphique ci après une estimation de ce Peak Oil réalisée par l’Association pour l’Etude du Pic Pétrolier (ASPO) en 2004.

Cette association prévoit le pic vers 2012, comme on peut le constater sur son graphique.

Pic de production atteint vers 2012

Pic de production atteint vers 2012

Pourquoi est-ce si important de connaître la date d’apparition de ce pic ?
Parce que les délais nécessaires à l’implémentation de nouvelles sources énergétiques sont tels qu’un risque de pénurie global est loin d’être négligeable et qu’il nous faut aujourd’hui sans plus tarder ni ergoter investir énormément dans la recherche.
2030 c’est dans 20 ans et ce délai est bien trop court pour mettre en place un système prouvé de substitution.

Et quel est le risque ?
Bien entendu il est énergétique mais surtout géopolitique et climatique.
Climatique ?
L’exploitation de base carbonnée non conventionnel deviendra très attractive (sable et schistes bitumineux, gaz naturel, biomasse, …) et leur impact sur le climat est loin d’être négligeable..
Ainsi les sables bitumineux ont un impact beaucoup plus conséquent sur l’environement que ne l’avait l’exploitation pétrolière.

Géopolitique ?
Privez de ressource les pays dont la démocratie est soutenue par les pétro-dollars et vous ne tarderez pas à en observer les conséquences.

La seule chose certaine c’est que lorsque nous aurons atteint ce Peak Oil plus rien ne sera plus comme aujourd’hui.

Via Futura-Sciences

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